The Cardinals' Offseason Strategy: Power, Consistency, and the Future
The St. Louis Cardinals' offseason strategy has been a topic of much discussion, particularly regarding their pursuit of right-handed bats to bolster their outfield group. While the team's interest in players like Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar, and Harrison Bader did not result in a deal, the Cardinals have other options on the table, including the intriguing case of Nelson Velázquez.
Velázquez, a 27-year-old outfielder, has been on a tear this spring, showcasing his power potential with a monster performance. In 39 plate appearances, he has clubbed four homers, boasting an impressive .333/.436/.727 slash and six walks against only three strikeouts. This performance builds on his strong showing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, where he hit .277/.377/.423 with 22 walks and 29 strikeouts in 159 plate appearances. Velázquez's power potential is undeniable, but his strikeout rate has been a concern, with a 28.8% rate in his major league career.
What makes Velázquez's situation particularly interesting is his approach. While his strikeout rate is high, he walks at a slightly better-than-average rate of 8.5%, and his chase rate on balls off the plate is several percentage points shy of average. However, his sub-par hit tool has been a significant deterrent, with a 76.2% contact rate on pitches over the plate, nearly nine percentage points below the average. Velázquez's contact rate when chasing off the plate is also 14 percentage points lower than average, indicating a need for improvement in his plate discipline.
Despite these concerns, Velázquez has shown progress in cutting his strikeout rate and increasing his walk rate, both in winter ball and at the Triple-A level. This improvement suggests that he is on the right track to becoming a power-over-hit corner bat. With the Cardinals' outfield depth, including the return of Lars Nootbaar and the presence of Victor Scott II and Jordan Walker, Velázquez's opportunity to carve out a role is uncertain. However, his minor league options are limited, and his controllability for five more seasons via arbitration provides a sense of security.
Another player making a strong case for a spot on the Opening Day roster is Nathan Church, a lefty-swinging outfielder. Church has hit .286/.412/.429 in 34 plate appearances this spring, showcasing his ability to find success in a platoon situation or as a traditional fourth outfielder. His defensive skills are also noteworthy, with four Outs Above Average and five Defensive Runs Saved in 164 big league innings last year. Church's minor league performance was even more impressive, with a .329/.386/.524 slash line, 13 homers, 16 steals, an 8.6% walk rate, and a 9.6% strikeout rate in 385 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A.
Manager Oli Marmol has noticed a positive change in Church's demeanor and overall confidence, with mechanical adjustments contributing to his consistency. This transformation is a welcome sight for the Cardinals, who are seeking consistency from their players.
Nolan Gorman, a former first-rounder and top prospect, is also seeking consistency. Gorman's power potential has been evident, but his scattershot opportunities and significant strikeout issues have been a concern. A private hitting instructor regimen led by Arenado's recommendation has helped Gorman find a more consistent swing, with a .250/.351/.625 slash line in 37 plate appearances this spring. With more playing time at third base and a reduced need for position flexibility, Gorman's future looks brighter, but his strikeout rate remains a critical factor in his overall production.
The Cardinals' offseason strategy seems to be centered around finding power and consistency, with Velázquez and Church emerging as strong contenders for roster spots. The team's pursuit of these players indicates a desire to build a strong outfield group, even with the return of Nootbaar and the presence of Scott II and Walker. The future of the Cardinals' outfield looks promising, with a mix of power, defense, and the potential for consistent performance.
In conclusion, the Cardinals' offseason moves are shaping up to be a strategic approach to building a competitive team. Velázquez and Church's performances this spring provide a glimpse into the team's potential, and the future of the outfield looks bright. With a mix of power and consistency, the Cardinals are poised to make a run at the playoffs, and their strategy seems to be paying off.
